Dear Investors,
We present to you a market overview along with the performance results of OTP Capital mutual investment funds for January 2026.
GENERAL ECONOMIC SITUATION IN UKRAINE
The beginning of 2026 was marked by the National Bank of Ukraine’s transition to a gradual monetary policy easing. Given that inflation in 2025 amounted to 8.0%, which was significantly lower than the regulator’s forecast (9.2%), as well as the approval of long-term EU financial support totaling EUR 90 billion for 2026–2027 (Ukraine Support Loan), the NBU’s Monetary Policy Committee decided to cut the key policy rate by 0.5 percentage points to 15.0%.
The NBU’s baseline macroeconomic forecast for 2026 envisages a further gradual reduction in the policy rate. At the same time, the regulator emphasizes increasing risks related to damage to energy infrastructure, which creates additional cost pressure on businesses and limits their production capacity.
HRYVNIA AND FOREIGN-CURRENCY INSTRUMENTS
In January, yields on hryvnia-denominated government bonds (OVDPs) at primary auctions began to decline amid expectations of further monetary easing and strong investor demand:
- 1-year — decreased from 16.35% to 16.19%
- 2-year — decreased from 17.10% to 16.91%
- 3-year — decreased from 17.80% to 17.44%
Rates on term deposits remained unchanged: 10.5–14.5% in hryvnia and up to 2% in US dollars, depending on the placement term.
In January, the Ministry of Finance did not conduct any placements of foreign-currency-denominated OVDPs on the primary market. On the secondary market, yields on FX-denominated government bonds did not exceed 3.4% in US dollars and 2.2% in euros.
Demand for foreign currency was elevated in the first half of the month, which led to a temporary weakening of the hryvnia to UAH 43.59/USD. Subsequent NBU interventions and the exhaustion of demand supported a strengthening of the hryvnia toward the end of the month. Overall, the official exchange rate weakened by 1.6% in January, from UAH 42.23 to 42.89 per USD. A moderate and controlled depreciation to UAH 43.5–44.0 per USD is expected by the end of Q1 2026.
The EU’s decision to provide financial support, along with intensified diplomatic engagement within the so-called “Coalition of the Willing”, had a positive impact on investor sentiment. As a result, Ukrainian Eurobonds rose by 4.8–5.5% in January, reaching record levels depending on maturity.
PERFORMANCE OF FUNDS UNDER OTP CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
OTP Classic Fund
No asset transactions were carried out in January.
As a result, the fund delivered a return of 1.2% for the month and 13.8% over the last 365 days.
OTP Kids Fund
In January, government bonds totaling UAH 31.2 million were sold from the OTP Kids Fund portfolio to ensure liquidity and meet client payout requirements. Rebalancing within the government bond segment was conducted with a focus on increasing the yield of OVDPs held in the portfolio.
The fund’s return amounted to 0.9% for the month and 16.3% over the last 365 days.
OTP Equity Fund
Fund management in January focused on reallocating assets into short-term deposits at the highest available rates. In particular, deposits were rolled over at Ukreximbank JSC and Ukrgasbank JSC, totaling UAH 1 million each.
As a result, the fund generated a return of 1.5% for the month and 12.6% over the last 365 days.
OTP Valutnyi Fund
No asset transactions were conducted during the reporting month.
The fund increased by 1.8% in US dollars for the month and by 6.4% over the last 365 days.
OTP Maximum Fund
In January, the management of the OTP Maximum Fund focused on active rebalancing of the government bond portfolio to enhance yields. OVDPs totaling UAH 11.4 million were sold, while UAH 12.4 million worth of government bonds with improved investment parameters were purchased.
As a result of the reporting month, the fund delivered a return of 1.3%, equivalent to 18.6% on an annualized basis.
