Active military operations in the Strait of Hormuz were suspended in May, which had a positive impact on oil and energy price dynamics. Brent crude fell from USD 114.8 per barrel to USD 91.1 per barrel. Inflationary pressure eased, and expectations are for this trend to persist through the end of the year. Such developments will allow the National Bank of Ukraine to maintain its current monetary policy and prevent inflation from exceeding 10%; the forecast for 2026 is 9.4%. Therefore, at its upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting in June, the regulator is expected to keep the key policy rate unchanged at 15%.
Yields on domestic government bonds (OVDPs) at primary auctions in May remained unchanged. In particular, yields on 1-year OVDPs stood at 15.15%, 2-year OVDPs at 15.85%, and 3-year OVDPs at 16.15%. Term deposit rates in the banking sector remained at April levels, ranging from 9% to 14% in UAH, while rates on USD-denominated deposits were unchanged at up to 2%, depending on maturity.
In May, the Ministry of Finance placed USD-denominated OVDPs at primary auctions with yields of 3.05%–3.15%. On the secondary market, yields on FX-denominated OVDPs did not exceed 2.25% in USD and 0.75% in EUR.







