Inflation continued its downward trend into the new year, reaching 7.4% year-on-year in January 2026. However, the inflationary pressure resulting from the destruction of energy infrastructure will have a delayed effect in the form of higher business costs and limitations on production capacity. For this reason, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) is implementing a gradual and cautious macroeconomic policy. According to the NBU’s baseline macroeconomic forecast for 2026, the key policy rate is expected to decrease to 14.5%, with the possibility of further easing over the forecast horizon.
Yields on UAH-denominated government bonds (OVDPs) at primary auctions continued to decline in February. Specifically, the yield on 1-year OVDPs fell from 16.19% to 15.32%, while 3-year OVDPs decreased from 17.44% to 16.28%. Interest rates on term deposits in the banking sector declined by 50 basis points, ranging between 9% and 14% in hryvnia, while USD deposit rates remained unchanged at up to 2%, depending on the term.







